This study addresses significant challenges that practitioners face when using customer lifetime value (CLV) for customer selection. First, the authors propose a Bayesian decision theory-based customer selection framework that accommodates the uncertainty inherent in predicting customer behavior. They develop a joint model of purchase timing and quantity that is amenable for selecting customers using CLV. Second, the authors compare performance of the proposed customer selection framework (1) with the current customer selection procedure in the collaborating firm and (2) with different customer-level cost allocation rules that are necessary for computing CLV. The study finds that given a budget constraint, customers selected by means of a Bayesian decision theory-based framework (i.e., using the maximized expected CLV of a customer and the corresponding optimal marketing costs as an estimate of future costs) provide the highest profits. The study provides guidelines for implementation and illustrates how the proposed customer selection framework can aid managers in enhancing marketing productivity and estimating return on marketing actions.

Starting with Bass’s (1969) article, diffusion researchers have predominantly focused on modeling category-level sales growth and issues surrounding it. In this article, the authors propose a brand-level diffusion model and demonstrate its managerial use by applying it to the following issue: If a brand enters a category that has not attained its peak sales, how can a practicing manager evaluate its impact on the category and on the incumbent brands? The proposed model helps the manager diagnose whether the late entrant affects the market potential and/or the diffusion speed of the category and of the incumbent brands. The authors test the model using brand-level sales data from the cellular telephone industry in multiple markets.

Using store-level scanner data, the authors investigate the effect of retail store price promotion, featuring, and displays on sales of brands of disposable diapers within a city. A hierarchical, cross-sectional, and time-series modeling procedure is used to identify the competitive structure among retail stores within a test market city. Models are developed for pooled store pairs to investigate the effect of promotion on store substitution. The specification of these models is based on findings from within-store brand substitution, followed by featuring and displays. Similarly, these activities produced store substitution in certain instances. However which specific promotional variables are significant and the magnitude of the effect are a function of the geographic proximity of the stores.